Diamond Digest Part Six: First half reflections and second half projections

[DISCLAIMER]: This column was written on July 12th, 2017 and is the sixth installment in a series. The first five entries can be found here.

The first half, or more like five ninths of the season has been completed. Do not be fooled by this rhetoric, which I have shamefully used in my title, as there are fewer than 81 remaining games for all MLB teams.

By now, most fantasy owners probably have a grasp on whether or not they are contending teams. In a balanced league, most if not all teams should still be have a shot at their playoffs or championship. Unless playing in a keeper league, err on the side of optimism. Baseball changes in a heartbeat and large deficits can be overcome. If playing in a keeper league and know you are out of it, by all means sell your veterans for some young guns to contenders.

For teams incapable of winning the championship, there exists much benefit to competing the rest of the season. For one, league mates will likely appreciate having a more competitive field. Furthermore, it’s great practice. Perhaps you can best your earlier results in hopes of finding out how to be more prepared for next season.

Now, let’s look back at some notes from the first part of the season and what they mean going forward. The 2017 season so far has set a record for pre-All Star break home runs. Independent research has found MLB is using slightly different balls, so expect the elevated home run rate to persist.

More home runs matter in fantasy. They are now less valuable. One-category mashers like Joey Gallo and Scott Schebler can be tough to own if your team is struggling in other categories, such as batting average. Another side effect of the power frenzy is that players with little power, even four category stars, contribute much less. Xander Bogaerts has been healthy, hit .303 and is 87th on ESPN’s player rater, a far cry from his draft position of 29.

Flyball-leaning pitchers are also riskier than ever, as home run per fly ball rate is an inconsistent rate for most hurlers. This means that flyball pitchers will likely be giving up a lot more homeruns than their sinkerballing counterparts. Flyball-leaning pitchers with low ERAs are potent trade chips.

The first half fantasy MVPs in terms of value added have been Aaron Judge and Alex Wood without a doubt. Both players were not drafted in the top 200 in ESPN leagues and have contributed top-15 performances thus far. Though both should continue to be stars, I recommend selling now. Their values likely won’t be higher, and the recency bias of their surge can inflate their perceived value to opponents. Judge has recorded a hit more than half the time he’s made contact, a rate I expect to drop even for someone with as much pop as him. Wood has struggled with injuries in the past and is yet to throw 200 innings a season. I would sell on 34-year-old Jason Vargas as well.

On the flip side, less fortunate players still have outbreak potential. Look out for big finishes from Manny Machado, Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Samardzija.

As always, roster transactions should be made with league settings in mind. Manipulating your roster to maximize scoring is advisable. If your team miraculously has no one on the DL, check the waiver wire. If stars are available, definitely stash them in your DL. Having your DL slot empty, like any other roster spot, serves no purpose. Is Starling Marte available in your league? Grab him immediately. He returns soon and should be a major contributor in all formats immediately upon return, as he is not injured.

As the late season push approaches, the same tactics that worked and didn’t work earlier should remain that way. Though a killer trade helps less than it did before, continue to monitor the market for good deals. Fantasy owners often become complacent when leading their standings, taking an ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it approach.’ They should be doing the opposite. Improving your team never hurts. If you lead your league, you have a good opportunity to rip off desperate owners in the middle of the pack.