How good would the 2018 Giants have been in 2013?

As evidenced by some splashy offseason moves, the San Francisco Giants aim to give it one more shot at contention in 2018. This ambition follows a beyond-dreadful 2017 campaign which saw the Giants finish with the fewest wins in baseball. The franchise had one of its worst seasons ever, dropping 98 games despite boasting the league’s seventh highest payroll (and highest 25-man roster payroll) on opening day.

Last season’s result represented the consequences of a roster generally past its prime in what has become a young man’s league. The 2018 roster is even older, with the same core aging a year and the addition of some veterans. Many of the Giants stars have reached the threshold of baseball’s senior citizenry -- their 30s.

Buster Posey will be 31 on Opening Day. Brandon Belt turns 30 in April. Brandon Crawford is 31. Evan Longoria is 32. Johnny Cueto is 32. Jeff Samardzija is 33. Mark Melancon is 32. And the projected starting outfield of Hunter Pence, Austin Jackson and Andrew McCutchen are 34, 31 and 31, respectively.

There are a couple key contributors whose ages begin with a two. Madison Bumgarner is still only 28, while Joe Panik and Ty Blach are both 27. It’s one thing for all of the corner players to be in their 30s, as less is required of them defensively. But of the four defenders tasked with manning AT&T Park’s spacious confines, only Joe Panik has yet to reach certified old man status.

But what if this roster was gearing up for the 2013 season instead? How would this band of still-competent has beens fare half a decade ago? Giants fans can only fantasize.

The 2013 Giants weren’t great. Fueled by an elite defense, their batters racked up 26.9 WAR to go with 9.3 WAR from their pitching staff. The team won 76 games coming off their 2012 World Series victory. However, they would win the fall classic again the next season.

Depth charts projects the 2018 team to accrue 37 WAR, just slightly higher than what its 2013 roster produced. The Giants’ projected WAR is good enough to rank 11th heading into next season, which would place the Giants on the fringe of playoff contention.

The table shows a projected position player division of the 2018 Giants. Even with four of them having yet to reach the bigs in 2013, members of the 2018 Giants racked up nearly 40 wins above replacement in 2013. Replacing the youngsters with replacement level production would still yield 17 wins in added value over the team’s current projections from the field.

Of course, the standouts are new additions Longoria and McCutchen, who won the 2013 NL MVP Award. Nick Hundley caught 119 games in 2013 as the Padres starting backstop, so his production would be lower backing up Posey. Pablo Sandoval earned 2.0 WAR for the 2013 Giants but has been omitted since I don’t expect him to make the Opening Day roster. It should be noted that the Depth Charts projections expect more than 550 plate appearances from every starter save Jackson, an unlikely feat for this old squad to reach.

The members of the Giants pitching staff actually produced several wins fewer in 2013. However, five of them were yet to reach the big leagues and Johnny Cueto missed most of the season due to injury. The aggregate 2013 WAR of the current group is similar to the 2013 staff’s actual output, though Bumgarner is the only remaining member. Assuming a healthy 2013 Cueto and a filled in bullpen with replacement level arms, we can project roughly 12 wins added over replacement from the fictional 2013 Giants’ arms.

In comparison to the rest of the league in 2018, the time-travelled Giants would have by far the best offense at just under 40 WAR with Houston being second at 30.6. On the mound, they would be near the bottom, between Oakland and Cincinatti’s projected production.

Overall, the fictitious team-wide WAR would be 52, still not enough to equal the 2018 Astros who project for 55.5. The lineup would be one of the greatest of all time. It’s 39.7 WAR would rank 14th in MLB history, the highest since the 116-game-winning 2001 Mariners.

So the 2018 Giants roster would have been world series quality in 2013. In actuality, the past-their-prime Giants could slide into the playoffs with immaculate health. But with most major contributors in their 30s, the Giants will likely be injury-ridden and out of the race in a tough NL West.

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