2016 MLB Awards: Predictions and Thoughts

With the MLB season finishing last week and award finalists being announced Tuesday, here are my predictions for the end-of-season individual awards. For each category, I will predict the winner, cast my own hypothetical vote and (attempt to) justify the predictions. Actual voting concluded prior to the playoffs at the end of the regular season.

AL MVP:

Who should win:

Mike Trout. The best player in the game led all players with an fWAR of 9.4 (fangraphs). With an MLB-best .441 on base percentage and power, he was a tremendous offensive asset and passable defender at a crucial position in center. He walked almost as much as he struck out and stole 30 bases.

Who will win:

Mookie Betts. Betts stuffed the box score all season long as a production monster and cemented himself as the fantastical five tool player. Playing solid defense in right, Betts slim 6.7% walk rate is my only strike against him. He made outs approximately 8% more often than Trout, thus making him an inferior candidate in my eyes.

Voters will likely be drooling over Betts’ monster conventional, circumstantial stats such as RBI. Furthermore, the fact that the Red Sox won 19 more games than the Angels will probably persuade voters away from the more valuable player by modern standards.

If I had a ballot: Trout, Betts, Josh Donaldson, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado

NL MVP:

Who should win:

Kris Bryant. He’s a prototypical superstar and the best player on the best team in the league. Bryant showed big time power and decent on base skills coupled with solid defense at the hot corner.

Who will win:

Bryant. This feels like one of the easier decisions of the year. Corey Seager had a tremendous rookie year but wasn’t nearly the hitter Bryant was and should come in second.

If I had a ballot: Bryant, Seager

AL Cy Young:

Who should win:

It’s virtually a four way tie between Rick Porcello, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander. I would give the nod to Kluber for having the best FIP and groundball percentage of the bunch, but he also had the highest walk rate. None of the four really separate themselves in my eyes.

Who will win:

Porcello. We all know that voters are suckers for wins, and he led the AL with a sparkling 22–4 record for a first place team. Furthermore, Porcello’s performance this year was more exciting than the other three who have been aces in the past.

If I had a ballot: Kluber, Sale, Verlander, Porcello

NL Cy Young:

Who should win:

This race was so exciting that it earned its own column. Another near toss-up, I would be happy seeing Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard or Jose Fernandez win, with that order being my preference. Unfortunately, none made even the top three.

Who will win:

Max Scherzer. Or maybe Kyle Hendricks. The voters really made me scratch my head here, as none of the potential winners make my top three. Scherzer led NL qualifiers in strikeouts, innings and K/BB ratio. He also had a sexy 20 strikeout game. But voters also find ERA sexy, and Hendricks’ mark of 2.13 led all qualified pitchers. I’ll say the brand name Scherzer is just ever so slightly more likely to win than Hendricks, but with these voters anything could happen.

If I had a ballot: Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Scherzer

AL Rookie of the Year

Who should win:

Here I will go against my usual philosophy and campaign for the player with the lower fWAR; Michael Fulmer over Gary Sanchez. The WAR discrepancy is marginal; 3.0 vs 3.2. My preference for Fulmer is small but lies in the fact that he played most of the season while Sanchez played only a third and put up power numbers that likely wouldn’t last for a full year. However, had Sanchez been called up sooner he would likely be the clear choice.

Who will win:

Fulmer. Voters will love his 3.06 ERA and steady contributions. Sanchez’ production came after the Yankees were basically out of the playoff hunt which will likely be a strike on his record to voters.

If I had a ballot: Fulmer, Sanchez, Tyler Naquin

NL Rookie of the Year

Who should win:

Corey Seager. He was by far and away the best rookie in the NL, posting well above average offensive and defensive numbers at the important shortstop position.

Who will win:

Seager. This isn’t a conversation; he will win in a landslide.

If I had a ballot: Seager, Trea Turner, Jon Gray

Originally published at dylanandersonblog.wordpress.com on November 8, 2016.