The Cy Young Conundrum: NL Edition

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. This assertion is an opinion of mine and is enough of a consensus amongst baseball fan community for it to be as close to fact as there can be in a conversation of this sort. I will also assert that he just completed the most effective season of his career.

Kershaw finished the season with a 15.64 strikeout to walk ratio, by far the highest ever by a pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched according to fangraphs. He also finished with a career low 0.72 WHIP which also happens to be the best single season mark of any hurler to reach the century mark in innings.

Had Kershaw pitched a full season, I would say the two aforementioned accomplishments would guarantee a Cy Young and at least consideration for NL MVP, but he missed more than two months with a back injury and finished at only 149 innings. To qualify for official pitching leaderboards, a pitcher must throw one inning per team game, or 162 for a full season, which Kershaw fell just 13 short of.

Were he able to make two more starts, Kershaw likely would have qualified for and won the ERA title and my preference for NL Cy Young recipient would be simple. But, I feel presented with a conflict of sorts in deciding who I wish to receive the prestigious award.

Kershaw’s competition comes primarily from young fireballers Noah Syndergaard and the late Jose Fernandez, and I will make a case for each. Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and ERA champion Kyle Hendricks are also worthy of consideration but don’t make my top three.

Scherzer led the NL in innings and struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings, but was victimized by the home run ball. Fly balls can be fluky, but Scherzer allows them at the second highest rate in the National League which definitely counts against him. Bumgarner had arguably his best year yet, setting personal records for ERA and strikeouts, though his walks were up and he also allowed fly balls at a higher clip than most of the other candidates.

Johnny Cueto had the lowest walk rate of this group save Kershaw, but his meager 8.11 K/9 ratio disqualifies him in my eyes. Hendricks had the lowest ERA of all pitchers who amassed at least 150 innings. Though ERA is a popular parameter for assessing a pitcher’s effectiveness, Kendricks’ mark is likely deflated as he had a lower K/9 than even Cueto and benefitted from what was probably the league’s best defense behind him.

Noah Syndergaard put baseball fans in awe this year, throwing significantly harder than before and making frequent use of a slider that reached 95 mph at times. His 5.07 K/BB tied for the National League lead and he led qualified MLB pitchers in fangraphs’ WAR category despite throwing under 200 innings. His earned run average of 2.60 was likely a little higher than it should have been as he was 6th in the NL in ground ball rate yet batters hit .334 on balls in play off him — significantly higher than the league average.

The most difficult candidate to consider is the now deceased Jose Fernandez who lost his life just before the season’s close at the age of 24. Fernandez was MLB’s filthiest starter this year, posting the 6th highest strikeout percentage ever, and best ever by pitchers not named Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. His walk rate was the highest in this bunch and he also was penalized by a unlucky BABIP of .332. Though making only 29 starts Fernandez finished second among qualified pitchers in fWAR.

With Fernandez comes an incalculable impact on voters and fans such as myself due to his unexpected passing. Just to be clear, Fernandez’ performance all season long made him a qualified Cy Young award candidate and he is not being included in this list out of pity. That being said, I do and will continue to miss him, and it would feel great to see him honored in this way.

I don’t think Fernandez should automatically win because of his death, but regardless of the Cy Young result, I would like to see his name on a postseason award going forward. This notion is not my original idea but something I fully support. A Jose Fernandez award for the most prolific strikeout pitcher in baseball would be appropriate. I would be happy as well if even the Cy Young award was renamed to the Jose Fernandez award for the national league recipient, as after all, it was originally named for a standout pitcher.

Reaching my final verdict was a tough call, but Kershaw is my preference. It’s fair to penalize him for a low innings count, but he only threw about 30 frames fewer than my second and third choices. Let’s also remember that relief pitchers have won the award with fewer than 100 innings, so a recipient having only 149 is not absurd by that precedent. Kershaw was simply more effective and threw significantly more innings per start than Fernandez and Syndergaard, which aided his bullpen.

If I had a ballot:

Originally published at dylanandersonblog.wordpress.com on November 7, 2016.